Good Start: Taxpaid Shipments +302K Bbls, +2.4% in Jan, Sez BI; 2020 #s Gettin’ Better All the Time
Double-dose of good news from Beer Inst on industry shipments today. First, domestic brewers got off to good start in Jan with taxpaid shipments up an estimated 302K bbls, +2.4%. Second, TTB keeps adding bbls to fall ’20 numbers and current Beer Inst figures for calendar 2020 now show small 171K-bbl, 0.1% gain for the year. Toss in imports and total biz in 2020 looks like a lot like 2019: up about 0.5%. More revisions coming, but it’s getting better. Then too, BI joined with NBWA and BA today to announce nationwide expansion of “Beers to That” category-growth campaign launched in Austin in 2019, aiming to give beer biz another reason to cheer.
February 25, 2021; INSIGHTS Express, Vol 23, No 41
So Many New Hard Seltzers from Bev and FMB Cos: Mixx, Clubtail, Seagram’s, Topo Chico, Sunrise, Talking Rain
New seltzers from sizable cos, several from world of non-alc bevs or FMBs, just keep popping into hard seltzer space at dizzying pace. Category already slowed to less than 80% growth for 4 weeks thru 1/9 in Nielsen all outlet + convenience (78%) and top 5 players well over 90% of the biz. Plus they all have big mktg budgets and many new innovations (not to mention over 150 other brands from other cos fighting for 5-7%), so these new cos and their entries may be scrambling for scraps or even crumbs.
How Many Can Win? Can the pie just keep expanding to accommodate all these newbies or is a rude awakening in store for at least some, maybe many? Look at some of the action in just last 2 weeks. Mixx seltzer from VPX (makers of Bang Energy) much in news lately. Tho it’s seemingly close to getting authorized by biggest chains, right now VPX doesn’t have a distribution network for Mixx and its partner Pepsi argues that beer distribs legally can’t take it on. Discussions with AB to potentially sell Mixx thru its network nationally reportedly got sidelined after tuff talk from Pepsi, as reported by our sibling pub Beverage Business INSIGHTS. FIFCO’s Seagram’s brand, one of the hottest FMBs, inevitably launching its seltzer this spring too. And don’t forget Monster, still on the sidelines in alc bevs, contrary to expectations of some analysts leading up to last week’s investor call, but it’s still exploring hard seltzer and other possibilities in the space, it said. Another sizable bev co, Talking Rain, is still all incremental with its seltzer play. Even hot new energy drink Alani Nu will be getting into hard seltzer, according to BBI. This spring will also see Heineken USA enter the arena with AriZona in new SunRise seltzer, plus bev giant Coca Cola coming (in partnership with Molson Coors) will be entering with Topo Chico. How much share could these brands collectively capture of hot segment? What would constitute success?
Jan 19, 2021; INSIGHTS Express, Vol 23, No 19