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Imports Pop in Oct: +263K Bbls, +9.3%; Up 2.5% YTD; Overall US Trend Lookin’ A Bit Better Too

Import trend gained steam in Oct.  Shipments +263K bbls, +9.3%, reports Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich based on data from Commerce Dept.  Double-digit increase in shipments from Mexico (+14%) drove gain, along with solid numbers from Belgium and Italy, modest bump from Canada.  For 10 mos, imports +774K bbls, 2.5%. Mexican shipments up 945K bbls, 4.4%. Dutch shipments still down 174K bbls, -4.6% yr-to-date, despite additional 110K bbls from no-alcs.  Belgian-German combo +86K bbls, 3.6%. Canadian shipments off 5%, Irish shipments -2%. Italian biz up near 60%. 

Meanwhile, TTB has added some bbls in latest reports of domestic brewers’ taxpaid shipments, brightening overall shipments picture slightly.  With revisions and import gain, Jan-Oct total US shipments off 1.9 mil bbls, -1.1%. Nov taxpaid comp very easy, -6% last yr, while Dec was +2.2%.  Imports off slightly Nov-Dec last yr. 

December 6, 2019; INSIGHTS Express, Vol 21, No 246

 

Three of Top 10 States Are Almost Half of US Decline; CA, IL and NY  

Total US shipments down 2.7 mil bbls, 1.6% in state data thru Oct, released by Beer Inst on Friday. That’s somewhat steeper than US domestic taxpaids + imports would suggest (-1.2%).  A few of biggest states drag trends down. CA shipments down 709,000 bbls, 3.5%, Illinois down 306,000 bbls, 4.3% and NY down 269K bbls, 3%. Those 3 states alone down 1.284 mil bbls. Among top 10 states, MI and OH also down 3% or more; OH down 216K bbls, 3.4% and MI down 197K bbls, 3.9%.  Most East North Central states have it pretty rough in 2019 (WI also down -3.7%). Doing better: big TX and FL. TX shipments actually up 0.5% for 10 mos and FL flat.

November 25, 2019; INSIGHTS Express, Vol 21, No 239