Beer Marketer's Insights - Brutal Feb vs Inflated Comps: Shipments Down 12%, 1.9 Mil Bbls as Taxpaids Sank 15%, Imports -3%; Down 9% for 2 Mos

Beer was set up to post an extra soft Feb 2025 vs year ago with 1 less calendar day and top brewers shipping way ahead of depletions in early 2024. Recall, US beer shipments grew 9% in Feb 2024 vs 2023, including taxpaids up 10% and imports up 8%. But those inflated gains got entirely wiped out and then some. Feb shipments dropped 12%, losing 1.9 mil bbls vs year ago, driven down almost entirely by taxpaids' 15%, 1.8-mil-bbl decline for the mo. Imports dipped just 3%, but Mexican imports were up 2% for the mo. So all other countries collectively declined by more than 20% in Feb vs yr ago. Net-net, total US beer volume is down nearly 9% for the first 2 mos vs yr ago, dragged by taxpaids, which are down 12%, while imports still grew 2%.Double-Digit Drops from Dutch, Irish, Canadian, and Italian Imports; Smaller Countries Up Double-Digits A big part of the Feb import drop came from countries with top brands shifting to US production for US mkt (see below). Total Canadian imports sank 30%, including Canadian beer down 89%, partly offset by growth from Canadian FMBs (captured by US Dept of Commerce in the perry, mead and not elsewhere specified or included category). Italian imports were down 39% as Peroni is in process of production shift too. Yet Netherlands (-19%) and Ireland (-47%) saw extra steep drops in Feb as well, seemingly impacted by shipments timing as well as supply chain issues for Diageo Beer with Guinness in particular. Keep in mind, US Dept of Commerce tracks beer coming into the country but doesn't always align with shipments to wholesalers as some product is first stored in US-based warehouses. Beyond growth from Mexico, German, Guatemalan, Polish and Jamaican imports saw strong double digit growth in Feb.Easy Comps in Mar & the 2d Half Early 2025 industry declines are scary. But remember that Mar 2024 shipments declined 13% vs Mar 2023, including taxpaids down 15%. So that sets up for improvement in Mar, at least. Scan data and anecdotal reports on Mar trends suggest industry was still soft, but not as soft as Feb. Plus, INSIGHTS hears Constellation and other top importers loaded up inventory in Mar ahead of potential tariff impact starting in Apr. Industry trends are set up to continue to seesaw mo-to-mo thruout the rest of the 1st half. But comps are consistently much easier thruout the 2d half of the year. Can trends level out? A colder-than-average winter coupled with economic uncertainty has further slowed" sales across all consumer goods, BI chief economist Andrew Heritage noted. "It's best not to read too much into any one month," and "best to sort out uncertainty now with the hope that consumer sentiment settles before heading into the key months of the summer selling season," he added.

Brutal Feb vs Inflated Comps: Shipments Down 12%, 1.9 Mil Bbls as Taxpaids Sank 15%, Imports -3%; Down 9% for 2 Mos

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