Vol 6, No 10   March 10, 2025

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“More Weakness Than Anticipated”: Beer Volume Down 5% for 12 Weeks in Circana EXPRESS – Mar 3 After 3 down yrs, beer industry trends finally started to seem more “normal” in recent mos as evinced by AB and Boston’s flat Q4 on depletions and Beer Institute reporting first 4 weeks of industry’s Jan depletions down just 0.3%. Then WHAMMO! Unfortunately, beer biz has fallen into a big hole the last few weeks for a number of reasons. The latest Circana report shows numbers getting even softer yet. Beer volume now down 4.7% for 12 weeks in Circana multi-outlet + convenience data thru Feb 23. That’s one of softest 12-week trends INSIGHTS can recall. Down 6% for 4 weeks and 10% in latest week. “More weakness than anticipated,” said Circana evp Scott Scanlon in reporting this info. “The data is not painting a pretty picture,” he added. Only 2 of top 15 beer brands positive in latest week and not by much, Scott said.

A-B’s Phorm Energy in Early Stages Gunning for Summer Launch; 5X GP Termination Payout BEV INSIGHTS – Mar 3 Plenty of moving pieces in leadup to launch of Anheuser-Busch’s Phorm Energy. Recall that concept had big unveiling  at Samcom sales & marketing pow-wow as restage of existing RTD line that was created in partnership with sports nutrition/supplements co 1st Phorm and UFC’s CEO Dana White, A-B is pushing hard in several different directions to bring brand to life on compressed timeline, per update to co’s distrib network this morn from biz & wholesaler development vp Bob Tallett and beyond-beer prexy Fabricio Zonzini. Among latest details of initiative announced in Jan with aim to put product on shelves by summer, A-B is building a new “dedicated” org structure that’ll “focus fully on growing Phorm”; taste testing product with consumers to “validate that we have a superior liquid,” and working on new pkg designs “informed by rounds of consumer review that we are confident will pop” on shelf. So several aspects of Phorm Energy still in flux.

STZ Up 23%, 84 Mil Cases in 3 Yrs While Total Beer Lost 10%, 296 Mil Cases; “Hold Fast and Stay True” to Navigate the Storm  EXPRESS – Mar 4 Constellation’s Gold Network Summit kicked off last Mon night, the evening before the Trump Administration planned to implement a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods and amidst an unusually soft period in beer industry and Constellation sales. But even tho GNS happening “during a period of notable change and a lot of volatility,” as chief customer officer Bill Renspie acknowledged in opening remarks, “all of you are in the best position to thrive in the face of any condition, good or bad,” with Constellation’s portfolio, he contended. “It couldn’t be better timing to have the Gold Network together for a Gold Network Summit, because you’re going to see, we have the right perspective, the right portfolio and the right plans.” STZ and its distribs have a “proven approach” that’s fostered industry leading growth for more than a decade, and “together, we’re going to safely navigate the stormy seas and continue to chart the right course to sustainable, profitable growth and industry stability,” Renspie exclaimed.

Black Rifle Bullish on Energy Launch as Revenues Soften in Wholesale, DTC, Café Segments; Shares Slump BEV INSIGHTS – Mar 4 Black Rifle Coffee cut its losses and enjoyed brisk launch of energy drink line in partnership with KDP but shares still tumbled over 15% in trading Mar 4 in down market as topline eroded in Q4. In Q4 revenues dipped 12% to $105.9 mil, tho erosion was smaller when non-comparable items like barter of excess inventory for media buys are excluded. Gross margin jumped nearly 12 pts to 38.7% from 26.5% as co’s efficiency drive continued. Operating loss narrowed to $2.2 mil from $12.2 mil. For full year revenues were off 1% to $391.5 mil. BRC operated in black, with $3.8 mil net profit, reversing $50.2 mil loss a year earlier. For 2025, BRC is anticipating just 1-9% revenue growth to $395-425 mil range as it gets energy launched and cycles $30.4 mil in barter revenue with growth anticipated to accelerate in following 2 years. Cash flow should be in the black via $20-30 mil EBITDA despite anticipated $9-10 mil hit from soaring prices for green coffee, 2.5-pt margin hit.

Constellation Prexy Jim Sabia on Tariffs, Toughness, Terminology and Tailwinds EXPRESS – Mar 5 In a challenging moment, Constellation Brands Beer Division prexy Jim Sabia focused most of his talk at the Gold Network Summit on Constellation’s enduring strengths and several “tailwinds.” That includes co’s long-term growth and “runway,” especially since STZ is 76% of biggest growth segment, imports. It also sells 3 of top 4 SKUs in biz and has “top loyalty” among Hispanics. But Jim began by discussing the Trump administration’s just-implemented tariffs (briefly), noting “we will continue to evaluate the levers we possess in terms of inventory, pricing and availability.”  “We know the industry is soft and sales over the past few months have not been good,” acknowledged Jim. But he placed that in historical context, noting other periods over decades when the industry declined. “This industry is powerful and dynamic, tough and resilient,” Jim emphasized. “I don’t buy into the narrative that beer is hopeless, or that the hope lies in beyond beer alone. We have come together to weather many storms over time and now is no different…. Our number one job is to grow beer,” said Jim.

Tariff Tumult: Mexico and Canada Granted Another Month-Long Reprieve EXPRESS – Mar 6 Just 2 days after 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada officially took effect, President Trump abruptly pivoted once again by announcing Jan 6 that Mexico “will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement” in deal that lasts thru April 2nd. “I did this as an accommodation, and out of respect for, [Mexico’s] President Sheinbaum,” he wrote on Truth Social, praising her “hard work and cooperation” on immigration and fentanyl. Move follows previous 1-month delay and would appear to exempt many Mexican goods, but nothing definitive on Mexican beer and alc bevs at press time. It also comes just a day after Trump Admin announced a 1-month exemption for US automakers Ford, GM and Stellantis under USMCA. And Wall St Jnl reported that the US will pause tariffs on compliant goods from Canada too thru Apr 2. “The exemption will cover about half of the imports from Mexico and about 37% of imports from Canada,” according to a White House official. (Note: it is still unclear if beer is exempt under the USMCA Agreement.)

Mich Ultra Pulling Away as Top Growth Brand in Scans Thru Feb 23 EXPRESS – Mar 7 AB’s Mich Ultra $$ and volume grew 6% YTD thru Feb 23 in Circana MULC, including +3% for latest 4 wks. That’s the largest $$ and volume gain by far among all beer brands thru the first 8 wks of 2025. Its nearly $26 mil and 857K-case growth amounted to a 0.6-pt $$ share gain and 0.8-pt volume share gain in these channels. Next biggest $$ gainers were Busch Light +5.6%, $10.1 mil, Coors Banquet +17%, $9.4 mil, and Pacifico +19%, $8.9 mil; up 0.26, 0.19 and 0.18 share, respectively. Modelo Especial is still the number one beer brand by $$ to start the year even as it slipped 1% to $509.1 mil YTD, including -5% for latest 4 wks. Gap is still widening vs Bud Light, which dropped 9% to $425 mil, now a distant #3. Yet #2 overall, Mich Ultra is closing the gap with Modelo Especial to start the yr at $455.5 mil. Bud Light, Mich Ultra and Coors Light volume sales are still larger than Modelo Especial in Circana MULC, tho all-channel Modelo Especial already rivaling Bud Light for #1 overall, INSIGHTS estimates.

Craft Scans Still Soft But Lost Just 0.05 Share of Beer $$ in Last 4 Wks; Down 4% YTD Thru Feb 23 CRAFT – Mar 7 The beer category had a rough Feb in scans and craft was no exception. However, with imports suddenly losing share, FMB sales declining (but still gaining share), domestic premium sales sinking 8% and virtually every other segment getting softer in the latest 4 wks thru Feb 23, craft share loss improved considerably in that period, lookin’ at Circana multi-outlet + convenience channels. Total beer $$ dropped 4.8% vs craft beer down 5.3% for 4 wks, excluding non-alc beers. So craft shed just 0.05 share for the period, and actually gained slight share including craft NAs. For the year, craft beer $$ ex-NAs still declined 4% with volume down 5.5% thru Feb 23 in MULC channels vs total beer down 2.7% and 4.5% respectively. So craft still shed 0.2 share of $$ YTD. But that’s an improvement compared to share losses posted in scans over the last few yrs.

Early Bird Discount Ends This Week for BMI Spring Conference!  Sign up and save $150 on the Beer Insights Spring Conference before prices go at the end of this week! Join us May 13 at the Four Seasons Chicago for first-rate content plus plenty of networking, including an opening reception the night before. Recently added: don’t miss a wide-ranging discussion between Columbia Distributing ceo Chris Steffanci and BMI prexy Benj Steinman exploring the evolution of the distribution landscape with one of the top total beverage proponents. Athletic Brewing co-founder and ceo Bill Shufelt will also provide perspective on the fast-changing world of NA beer as part of a panel of leading players. Diageo Beer Co & pre-mix president Laura Merritt will discuss the hot Guinness brand and much more. Plus new Brewers Association prexy & ceo Bart Watson will discuss ways to win in craft alongside Sierra Nevada cco Ellie Preslar. Get a distrib M&A deep dive from Randy Jozwiakowski, managing director/owner of Paragon Beverage Advisors. And BMI executive editor David Steinman will give a wide-ranging overview of the industry to start the day, with more speakers to be added soon. Register today to secure your spot. 

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